Four-quadrant map
Click a tract for child share, potential density, renter share, poverty rate, and housing age.
Children · place-based screening
Where tree-pollen potential and child share coincide
A four-quadrant screen across 2020 Census Tracts. “High child share” means the percentage of residents under 18 is at or above the NYC tract median; “high potential” means ATPI potential density is at or above its median.
—eligible Census Tracts
—high-potential / high-child-share Tracts
—child share · median threshold
—Pearson r · potential vs. child share
Tract scatterplot
Each point is one Tract (n = 2,242). Dashed lines are NYC-wide medians; the y-axis uses the analysis log scale.
A · High potential / high child shareB · Low potential / low child shareC · High potential / low child shareD · Low potential / high child share
How to read the pattern
The matrix is useful for prioritization, but it does not show that child share produces tree-pollen potential—or that potential has caused childhood allergy. It identifies where two planning concerns overlap.
r = 0.159
Child share has a weak positive relationship
Tracts with a higher share of children tend to have slightly higher ATPI potential, but the relationship is weak. The high–high category is a screening priority, not a causal or clinical finding.
r = −0.249
More renters correspond to lower potential
Across all tracts, renter share has a weak negative relationship with potential; poverty is nearly identical (r = −0.248). The low-potential / high-child-share group is the most renter-heavy and poorest. This is association, not evidence that renting protects against pollen.
r = 0.382
Housing age is the strongest correlate
Older housing has the strongest positive linear relationship with potential. Average housing age is about 76 years in high–high tracts and 75 in high-potential / low-child-share tracts, compared with 66 in low-potential / high-child-share tracts. This is consistent with mature-tree and development histories, not proof of causation.
Where children and priority tracts concentrate
What this map can support
Use the categories to match interventions to the local pattern, instead of treating every high-child-share or high-potential tract the same way.
High potential · high child share
Prioritize school and childcare communication during tree-pollen seasons; inspect nearby priority taxa; diversify future planting; and time pruning or maintenance carefully. Avoid blanket tree removal, which would sacrifice shade and other health benefits.
Low potential · high child share
Tree pollen is not the leading signal here. Pair child-health work with housing conditions, mold, pests, traffic pollution, care access, and other asthma or allergy triggers—especially because this group is more renter-heavy and has higher poverty.
Interpretation limit: child share is an ACS tract estimate, not an individual record. ATPI measures potential street-tree pollen sources—not pollen concentration, individual exposure, allergy prevalence, or clinical risk.